Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-23 0.148457 0.166584 0.186145 0.208837 0.234457 0.262511 0.295589
2025-11-30 0.119505 0.143279 0.170757 0.204924 0.246355 0.295081 0.356898
2025-12-07 0.093934 0.119432 0.150758 0.192206 0.245810 0.313071 0.404306
2025-12-14 0.076708 0.102954 0.137071 0.184899 0.250596 0.338216 0.464849
2025-12-21 0.063680 0.089859 0.125717 0.178774 0.255895 0.364847 0.532092
2025-12-28 0.055733 0.082444 0.120886 0.180759 0.272615 0.409754 0.632886
2026-01-04 0.047928 0.074048 0.113398 0.177674 0.281383 0.444453 0.724760
2026-01-11 0.042211 0.067943 0.108416 0.177584 0.294679 0.488167 0.838841
2026-01-18 0.037911 0.063430 0.105245 0.179851 0.312090 0.541275 0.978444
2026-01-25 0.032578 0.056450 0.097042 0.172358 0.311580 0.563657 1.067716
2026-02-01 0.027915 0.049969 0.088786 0.163495 0.307142 0.578179 1.144902
2026-02-08 0.024536 0.045311 0.083107 0.158465 0.308987 0.604587 1.250189
2026-02-15 0.021583 0.041126 0.077884 0.153832 0.311509 0.634028 1.370503
2026-02-22 0.019889 0.039108 0.076493 0.156570 0.329464 0.698083 1.579082
2026-03-01 0.017531 0.035469 0.071436 0.151046 0.329192 0.723719 1.707039
2026-03-08 0.015766 0.032796 0.067975 0.148388 0.334782 0.763369 1.877010
2026-03-15 0.014227 0.030393 0.064752 0.145760 0.340028 0.803255 2.056649
2026-03-22 0.013354 0.029303 0.064196 0.149087 0.359834 0.881366 2.352384
2026-03-29 0.012233 0.027515 0.061853 0.147858 0.368353 0.933228 2.589705
2026-04-05 0.011379 0.026226 0.060475 0.148763 0.382453 1.002130 2.891389
2026-04-12 0.010717 0.025302 0.059825 0.151396 0.401571 1.088108 3.264156
2026-04-19 0.009637 0.023233 0.056155 0.145688 0.397205 1.108637 3.442581
2026-04-26 0.008603 0.021154 0.052201 0.138648 0.387982 1.113783 3.574194